Tan Kin Lian - Perspectives Should young people be optimistic about their future?
A friend suggested that I should write a book for our young people, based on my experience in the presidential campaign and my observation about the future for young people in Singapore. 

I will embark on this challenge. I will address the question - should our young people be optimistic about their future?

On the negative side are the high cost of living, the high cost of housing and the uncertainty about jobs. 

But there is a positive side. The people in other countries appear to be having a more difficult time, which explains the influx of foreigners who want to work in Singapore. Does this inflow of foreigners suggest that Singapore is not so bad, and in fact, there are more opportunities in Singapore for people to work and make a good living.

In evaluating this situation, we must not forget one important fact. The young men in Singapore are required to serve two years of full time national service and another seven to ten years of reservist duty. If this requirement is imposed on foreigners, many would probably not accept this obligation (although some might). 

In the past, I knew of many Malaysians who have worked in Singapore for more than one or two decades. They became permanent residents, but refused to become Singapore citizens. Most of them probably prefer to keep the option to retire in Malaysia as Malaysian citizens. For various reasons, they do not want to cut off their ties to Malaysia, and become Singapore citizens. 

The fact that many people want to work in Singapore does not mean that they want to make a future in Singapore. Indeed, there are many people from various countries who work in Singapore for several years, but their goal is to migrate to other developed countries to live there permanently. Singapore is just a temporary place to stay, on their long journey to their final destination.

I come back to the question - should young people be optimistic about their future in Singapore?

To answer this question objectively, I will use an indicator - the fertility rate. If young people are optimistic about their future, they will marry, start a family and have children. If they are not optimistic, they will not want to have children. They do not want to raise children when they do not see a good future for their children. 

Our fertility rate was recognized to be low in the early 1980s. The government put in much effort to raise the fertility rate, including introduce various tax and other incentives. These measures did not raise the fertility rate. It continued to decline. 

The fertility rate in 1983 was 1.694, measured in number of births per woman, which was below the reproduction rate of 2.1. The fertility rate decreased to 1.233 in 2013 and increased slightly to 1.244 in 2023. The fertility rate of 1.244 in Singapore was among the lowest in the world. It was even lower than Japan (1.367) but slightly higher than Taiwan (1.236) and South Korea (1.075). 

I consider the low fertility rate to be a good indication that the young people are not optimistic about the future. They find that the cost of living is too high and that jobs are not secure and do not pay adequately. They delay their marriage and, in many cases, do not get married or do not wish to have children. 

We need to give our young people an optimistic outlook, that the future will be bright and life will be better. When they are optimistic, we should see an increase in the fertility rate. 

Tan Kin Lian 
 

 

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