China Covid situation after relaxation of restrictions
Several reports from the western media, and from Channel NewsAsia and SCMP of Hong Kong said that the wave of covid infections had overwhelmed the health system in China and covid deaths were soaring.

They suggested that the official statistics of covid deaths in China was grossly under-reported due to a change in definition by the China authority (which they suggested was unjustified).

Several media mentioned that the daily covid deaths in China has probably reached 5,000. If this is extrapolated for 365 days, the death would be between 1 to 2 million (which was carried in several reports).

There was a positive observation by a German journalist (from the DW media, I think) that things are returning to normal in Beijing. There is no more queues in front of fever centers and drug stores. He thinks that the wave is probably over in Beijing. He said that the challenges could lie ahead for the other provinces that do not have the medical facilities in the cities.

I will monitor the reports and make a critical judgment between reliable and smearing reports. Each comment represents the opinion of a journalist based on what he saw and hear. The journalist may or may not be honest in his or her reporting, or may analyze the situation wrongly.

Let me take the figure of 5,000 covid deaths. I consider it to be normal. This figure may persist for several weeks, not will not continue for 1 year. If I take 8 weeks, the figures will reach 250,000 deaths.

Without covid, there are 10 million deaths in China. With the spread of the covid infections, it is likely that some of these "normal deaths" would be from people who are infected by covid. It is also possible that the covid infections accelerated their deaths. The 250,000 projected deaths represent 2.5% of the normal deaths. This is not an alarming figure.

Even if the covid deaths reach 1 million, it represents 10% of normal deaths. Again, I would not be alarmed.

If it passes 2 million deaths (based on a wider definition of covid deaths used in western countries), I might be worried.

Tan Kin Lian

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