Covid-19 crisis Opening the borders and removing the mandatory stay home notice
I have seen many comments in social media against opening the borders and removing the stay home notice. Many people are worried that this move might cause the infection and deaths to increase significantly. They consider this move to be risky and criticized the ministers for making this change.

I believe that this is the right move and the risk is quite low. It is also necessary for us to open the borders for international travel to resume and for our airlines, airport, hotels and restaurants to rebuild their business. 

I wish to explain why the risk is low and acceptable.

We are allowing entry only for vaccinated people who are tested negative on arrival. 

These travelers have a lower risk of spreading the infection, compared to locals, because some of the locals are unvaccinated and most of them are not tested for covid. 

Even if the travelers carry the virus that are not detected by the test on arrival, the virus is likely to be mild. 

We have already had over 2,000 cases of infections during the past month. This has resulted in a small number of people that are severely ill but have recovered. There were 10 deaths during this period. Most of them were elderly and had severe medical conditions before they became infected by covid. A high proportion were unvaccinated.

While we have to take necessary actions to prevent deaths from covid, even among the vulnerable, these actions should not be too restrictive as to cause financial hardship to other people who have to make a living. 

The vulnerable are advised to get vaccinated early, to reduce the risk of infection and severe illness. If they cannot be vaccinated, due to medical conditions, they should avoid social contacts as much as possible. 

Another reason for opening up the borders is the high rate of vaccination among the population. This rate is now over 80% and is among the highest in the world. A large proportion of the population has already protected through vaccination. 

Although the vaccine does not provide total protection against infection and severe illness, it does provide a high level of protection. The infection of the vaccination are likely to be mild. 

There will still be a few deaths among the vaccinated who have severe underlying conditons. They should avoid social contact, even if they have been vaccinated.

I now give my view about the stay home notice for incoming travelers. Although the mandatory isolation of 7 or 14 days may help to detect infections that occured after arrival, this proportion is likely to be low and the infection is likely to be mild. I have not seen any data or report to the contrary. 

If we continue the mandatory stay home notice for an extended period, it will certainly deter many people for travelling to Singapore. This will defect the goal of resuming normal economic activities as soon as possible. 

After considering the risk, I am of the opinion that it is advisable to open up the borders and remove the mandatory stay home notice for vaccinated travelers who are tested negative for covid on arrival. 

There is the possibility that the infection and severity will be higher than expected. If this occurs, we can tighten up the measures. I believe that this will not be the case. 

Tan Kin Lian
 

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