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22 Jul 2021  (543 Views) 
Covid-19 crisis

Does vaccination help to fight covid?
Many people who have been fully vaccinated are still worried that they may still be infected with the covid virus. They read reports about vaccinated people who are infected .

They do not need to be worried.

Although they may still be infected, the virus is likely to be mild and will not develop into serious illness. 

The statistics released by the Ministry of Health showed that 412 fully vaccinated people are infected with the virus during the past 14 days. In all cases, they are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.  None of them require oxygen supplementation. Many of them are elderly, as most of the early vaccinations were carried out among the elderly. (See the table below).

Apart from vaccination, people who have been infected with the virus before have also developed a high level of immunity towards the virus. 

At the peak of the infection in May, the daily cases reported in India was over 400,000. It has now dropped to 40,000. It is likely that most of the population have already been exposed to the delta variant of the covid virus and have developed immunity. 

The actual vaccination rate in India is 4%. But this is no longer important. The large drop in daily cases suggested that the population had already developed its herd immunity.

There is a fear that the infected person, who has already been fully vaccination, may transmit the virus to other people and cause harm.

I have read some report that the virus in fully vaccinated people is less likely to spread. I believe this to be the case, as my common sense tells me that a mild virus is not likely to transmit widely.

The virus is transmitted mainly by "super spreaders". I suspect that in these cases, the viral load has reached a high level in the patient.

I observed a similar pattern in the United Kingdom. At its peak in January, the daily count of new cases is about 60,000. This reduced during the lockdown period. When the lockdown was relaxed in June, the new cases have increased to 40,000 now. 

However, the daily deaths dropped from a peak of 1,600 in January to the current level of less than 100. It has not increased in spite of the increase in daily cases. This is probably due to the mild nature of the virus among the new cases reported recently.

I conclude that the vaccination has provided a high degree of immunity for those who are fully vaccinated. The general population is also able to develop immunity through an earlier exposure to the virus. 

Although there is still a large number of new cases being reported in many countries, they are likely to be milder in nature and will not cause many deaths.

I monitor the severe cases and deaths in Singapore in the recent spite of new cases. I find that the virus is under control and the number of severe cases is kept at a very low level. There is no need to be worried about the new cases.

I hope that the ministers will also monitor the situation calmly and avoid taking extreme measures that will harm the business and livelihood of many people.

Tan Kin Lian


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