Out of the box Do not take extreme measures in uncertain circumstances
Many people are not familiar with the concept of probability.

I wish to quote an example to illustrate this concept. 

The death rate in many countries in Europe and North America from covid-19 is more than 500 per million. This is more than 0.5%. It is a high rate.

In many countries in Asia, the death rate is around 50 per million. This is a rate of 0.05%. It is a moderate rate. 

In Singapore, the death rate is 5 per million. It is only 1% of the death rate in Europe. It is a low rate.

When the death rate is high, like in Europe, it is necessary to implement lockdown measures and close the economy.

When the rate is moderate, it is necessary to take some precautions, but a lockdown is not necessary. The precautions could include wearing of mask in crowded places and safe distancing.

When the death rate is low, there is no need to be worried excessively. Certainly a lockdown (or circuit breaker as it is called in Singapore) is rather extreme. It is also not necessary to insist on compulsory wearing of masks or safe distancing.

A good approach is to allow the citizens to use their discretion. If they wish to be safe, they can wear a mask. But it is not appropriate to insist on compulsory wearing of mask or safe distancing when the death rate is low.

Some people argue that precautionary measures are advisable to prevent an increase in the death rate. They overlook the negative impact of the precautionary measures. A lockdown or circuit breaker will cause harm to the economy and to the livelihood of many people. The harm can be worse than the death caused by covid-19.

When things are uncertain, it is better to monitor the situation first. It is not advisable to take extreme measures that have its harmful consequences.

We need a more sensible approach towards risk management.

Tan Kin Lian



 

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