Covid-19 crisis Why are some foreign workers not infected?
REVISED.
About 1 in 15 of foreign workers living in dormitories have been tested during the past three weeks. Some 20,000 tests were carried out. 

An estimated 10,000 of them were found to be positive. This represents an infection rate of 50%. This large number of cases caused panic in Singapore. Even the ministers panicked.

I like to ask the question - what happened to the other 50%? Surely, if the virus is so contagious, the foreign workers are living so densely together, and a large number are already infected, we should expect 100% to be infected?

I have positive news to share with you.

I read Bill Gates paper and learned about the different types of tests. The tests that is carried out on the foreign workers is the PCR test. It will show a positive result for people who still carry the virus (i.e. during the incubation period and when they have symptom) but excludes the people who passed the incubation period and did not fall sick.

I reason that most of the 50% had already been infected and have not been sick. They are likely to be immune now.

There is a separate test, called the serology or antibody test, that identifies the people who have been infected, and include those who have the virus now. If this test is carried out, it is likely to show that all of the foreign workers have been infected. But the other 50% have now become immune. This test will catch a larger number of people.

This antibody test was carried out on a random sample of residents in New York City. It identified that 21% of the people have already been infected. 

I suggest that the task force should carry out the antibody test on a sample of the remaining 50% to determine if they are already immune. If my reasoning is correct, we should be able to allow these 50% to return to work in the community, without worry that they will spread the virus.

I want to share another good news.

The 10,000 foreign workers have been tested to be positive during the past three weeks since the circuit breaker started. Most of them are being housed in isolation facilities. Only a few were are sick are sent for treatment in hospital. 

In spite of this large number of new cases, the number of patients in intensive care, i.e. ICU, has kept below 25. This means that none of them have been severely sick. 

After 21 or 28 days of isolation, we should expect to see large number of the infected foreign workers to be discharged from the isolation centers and hospitals.

I believe that the covid-19 virus remain quite mild in Singapore. We will not see a large increase in deaths.

Tan Kin Lian
 

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