Covid-19 crisis MOH statistics 15 Feb 2022
I wish to give my observation about the following statistics taken from MOH website as at 15 Feb 2022.

A total of 498,000 cases were reported since the start of the pandemic. This represents nearly 10% of the resident population. 

913 people have died, giving  a case fatality rate of 0.18%.

19,179 local cases and 241 imported cases were reported on 15 Feb. The proportion of important cases is small, compared to the local cases.

This suggested that the risk of imported cases is quite small. There is no need to continue the isolation and daily testing for incoming travelers. 

During the past 28 days, the case fatality rate is 0.03% of the reported cases. This is much lower than the overall rate of 0.18%. The fatality rate is much lower for the current omicron variant, i.e. six times lower. 

16,102 cases were detected through local ART. This represents 84% of cases detected on that day. What is the breakdown between self testing and supervised testing? I suspect that the majority of these cases were detected through self testing.

0.04% of cases require ICU care. 1.6% (i.e 23/1355) of hospital cases need ICU. This suggest that that 2.5% (0.04/1.6) of cases are admitted into hospital. I wonder why MOH does not want to release this figure?

We have nearly 20,000 cases a day now. Applying the case fatality rate of 0.03%, we can expect 6 deaths. If the cases drop to 10,000, we can expect 3 deaths. 

Based on the experience in many countries, the cases will drop after a few weeks, as the omicron variant spread through the population.

Tan Kin Lian

 

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