Covid-19 crisis Compare the prevalence rate
The minister reported that 2,600 omicron cases have been imported into Singapore, accounting for 60% of the 4,322 cases recorded in Singapore. Report. 

This information is not helpful. It is potentially misleading. 

Based on this information, many people are arguing that we should close our borders and stop the spread of the omicron variant that is being brought into Singapore by the visitors. 

I wish to point out the following facts:

a) Every incoming traveler is tested. When a large number is tested, it will produce a large number of cases. If the prevalence rate is 10% and 10,000 people are tested, you will get 1,000 cases.

b) The small number of local cases is due primarily to the small number of people that are tested.

c) Although a large number of cases are detected from the travelers and locals, it is likely that a high proportion of the cases are mild and only a small percentage require to be treated in hospital. The other mild cases will overcome their infection after a certain period, and will not spread the virus any more. 

It is more helpful to measure and compare the prevalence rate of incoming travelers and the local population. In the latter case, this can be done through systematic sampling techniques. 

If there is a higher prevalence among the incoming travelers, I will support measures to restrict the inflow. In the absence of this data, I do not agree with the calls for restrictions.

It will be more helpful if the minister and the task force provide figures that are more useful and reliable.                   

Tan Kin Lian

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