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13 Nov 2021  (395 Views) 
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China


Will China lead to the downfall of the US?

Quora: What are the reasons why China will lead to the downfall of the US?

Peter Elliott (NZ) replied.

Most likely way is to destroy the USD hegemony.

Having said that, Trump sort of started it by weaponising the USD, and SWIFT in particular. As a consequence China is moving away from trading in USD, along with other countries like Russia, Iran and parts of Europe.

Once trade is done with other currencies the massive debt that the US holds won’t be so well supported and the value of the USD will plummet if not collapse according to a lot of economists.

Of course it might not happen and it might just be another doomsayer thing, but it’s the only way China will have a hand in the downfall of the US. If that was to happen.

TKL's view.
I hold the same view as Peter Elliot
The US forced China to move away from the hegemony of the USD.
China is developing the CBDC (central bank digital currency).
They will be able to use the digital platform as an alternative to SWIFT.
They will also allow trade in CNY and other currencies.
The USD will lose its position as the primary trading currency.
Most of the trade with China will use the CNY.
I expect that this will happen within two years, but it may take longer (say 5 years).

However, I believe that China does not want to see the downfall of the USA.
They will develop their digital platform as an alternative to SWIFT, and both platforms will continue to exist.

Tan Kin Lian


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