Covid-19 crisis Explanation - big spike in infections and deaths
The ministerial task force started to relax the restrictions after the vaccination rate for the adult population passed the 80% thresholds. They described the new strategy as "living with covid".

I agreed with the strategy. 

During the initial few days, the infections increased sharply to several hundreds a day. 

After studying the data, I said that this was due to our mass testing approach, using the contact tracing data (i.e. safe entry and trace together). They will catching many cases, which were mild. 

I compared our rate of testing per million of population and found that we were testing 10 times of the global average. See report. 

I suggested that we should stop the contact tracing using the safe entry data (which is unreliable).

Several disease experts also argued that the mass testing should be stopped, as it brings out many mild cases and cause alarm.

According to my reasoning, the mild cases will go away and will not lead to a sharp increase in severe cases and deaths. 

In the subsequent days, the severe cases and deaths spike up sharply. 

The new data caused me to reexamine my approach.

Does the data show that the mass testing was necessary to identify the virus and isolate the infected people to slow down the spread? If the mass testing was stopped, would there be a sharp increase in severe cases and deaths, compared to what is happening now?

I thought over this matter for a few days.

I looked at the experience in India and Indonesia. Their infections and deaths have come down by over 90% compared to a peak a few months earlier. Their vaccination rate remained below 50%, compared to over 80% for Singapore. 

What is the possible reason for the spike in cases in Singapore and the sharp drop in India and Indonesia?

I have a hypothesis that needs to be verified. 

My hypothesis is that the virus has already reached a large port of the population in India and Indonesia leading to a large number of deaths among the vulnerable population. Those who survived have developed natural immunity. 

It appears to me that a small part of the population will be vulnerable to the virus, but the majority of the people will have immunity against it, either through the vaccine or their natural immunity. 

It also seem to me that the testing and isolation of the mild cases will not achieve much in stopping the spread of the virus. It is probably quite widespread already.

It should be quite safe to stop the mass testing of the asymptomatic cases and only deal with the cases where the virus has developed into a more severe stage and the infected person becomes unwell. 

We can focus our attention on treating the sick people. 

We should not divert the resources towards testing the asymptomatic cases and isolated them. 

Our trajectory seemed to follow Israel. They achieved a high rate of vaccination and relaxed their restrictions. This was followed by a large increase in new infections and deaths. 

Isreal has now gone over the wave. Their infections and deaths have come down. 

I expect Singapore to follow the pattern of Israel in a few more weeks time. 

In the meantime, I hope that the ministerial task force will reduce the mass testing of asymptomatic cases. It will stop the panic among the people at large.

Tan Kin Lian




 

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