Covid-19 crisis How the ministers respond to the spike in covid infections and deaths
A total of 30 people died from covid during the past seven days in Singapore. The average is 3 per day. 

I wish to express my sympathies for the families of the deceased, especially those who were fully vaccinated or could not be vaccinated due to medical reasons. It must be a painful experience for them. 

The number of deaths probably surprised the ministers in the task force. It must be unexpected for them. 

It was certainly unexpected for me. I had projected that the deaths could increase to 1 or 2 a day. It exceeded my expectations.

Many people blamed the ministers for relaxing the restrictions and implementing the strategy of "living with covid" too hastily and without proper preparation.

They pointed out the experience of Israel which implemented the relaxation a few weeks earlier and also experienced a high surge of infections.

In the case of Israel, they took the decision after achieving a high vaccination rate. Singapore adopted the same approach. 

The critics said that the ministers should have learned from the experience of Israel and realized that the vaccine does not reduce the spread of the virus, especially for the delta variant.

These critics turned out to be right. 

However, I do not fault the ministers for taking the decision to move towards "living with covid".

I would have taken the same decision, if I were in charge. 

The daily report from the ministry of health showed that 98% of the covid cases were mild and the infected people recovered from the virus. Only 0.1% die from covid.

With over 3,000 new cases a day, the average of 3 deaths a day is consistent with the statistics. 

The question is - will the number of cases reach 5,000 a day or even 10,000 a day?

The ministers are expected the cases to increase. The trajectory suggests that this may happen.

Will the increase in new cases cause the hospital system to break down?

So far, the ministers have taken the appropriate measures to deal with the situation:

a) They have increased the number of hospital beds available for treatment of covid patients

b) They have developed community treatment facilities to treat covid patients that need attention. This will take some of the load from the hospitals.

c) They have developed community care facilities to take care of covid patients with mild symptoms and need special attention. 2,700 places are ready and another 1,400 places are reserved as a buffer. Article. 

d) They have improved and simplified their protocols for the home recovery program. These are for infected people with mild symptoms who can be isolated at home.

I can see that the ministers are taking the appropriate actions to ensure that the appropriate treatment is available for covid patients and that the hospital system can cope with the severe cases. 

Looking forward, there are a few positive signs:

a) The experience in several countries showed that the infections and deaths will reach a peak after a few weeks and will start to decline. We may reach that peak soon.

b) Some countries, such as India and Indonesia, that went through a health crisis, now have low infections and deaths. This is probably due to natural immunity achieved by the population after a wide spread of the infection. We may experience the same outcome.

c) New drugs will soon be available for the treatment of covid, such as the drug called molnupiravir that is developed by Merck and is now being tested for approval.

Many critics blame the ministers for their poor judgement in relaxing the restrictions too early.

The critics may be right. 

However, I would probably have taken the same decision as the ministers, based on the available information at that time. 

More importantly, when the infections got worse, they have taken the appropriate measures to handle the infections and hospitalizations. 

I wish them success.

Tan Kin Lian








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Tan KL  10 Oct 2021  

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