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27 Sep 2021  (471 Views) 
Covid-19 crisis

Sources of new infections
We have now reached 2,000 new cases of covid infection in a day.

We need to know the breakdown of these cases according to source:

a) Through safe entry contact tracing
b) Through trace together contact tracing
c) Through regular testing of front line workers
d) Through visits to doctor

I suspect that a large proportion of the new cases come through the first three categories. 

In most cases, they are likely to be asymptomatic or mild. 

Although we have more than 3 times the infection (per million of population) compared to Australia, our death rate remains low and at the same level as Australia.

I used Australia for comparison because both countries, namely Singapore and Australia, had low numbers previously and are going through the same strategy of "living with covid".

I suspect that the safe entry and trace together are capturing a high  number of infections and that most of them are asymptomatic or mild.

A lot of effort is spent to treat these mild cases in hospitals or place them on strict quarantine. 

These efforts are largely wasted, as they do not help to reduce the deaths, compared to Australia.

I suspect that our death rate will remain the same, if we change the criteria to capture and focus on the more serious cases. 

How can this be done?

We can review the algorithm on selecting the contacts for sending out the health warnings and health alerts.

We are probably sending out too many of these cases, resulting in more tests and more cases. 

If we tighten the algorithm, we will deal with less contacts who are likely to be the more exposed and more serious cases.

We can reduce the infections by one third, e.g. to reach a similar level (on a pro rata basis) as Australia. Our death rate will probably remain at the current level.

We will reduce the strain on our hospital system or on the home recovery program.

I hope that the Ministry of Health will release the data (on the source of the infections), and review this suggestion.

Tan Kin Lian

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