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06 Sep 2021  (534 Views) 
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Covid-19 crisis


We should expect 30 covid deaths a month
We have a total of 55 covid deaths up to 5 September. About 20 deaths occurred in August. 

Going forward, we should expect 20 deaths a months from covid. It could be higher. 

Even if we have 1 death each day, or 30 a month, it would not be a cause for concern.

Let me explain the reason.

Every day, we have an average of 80 deaths from all causes - cancer, heart attack, stroke, kidney failure, accident or just "old age".

One death a day from covid is small, compared to 80 deaths from all causes. 

The covid death is likely to come from the 80 deaths that happen each day, except that the covid probably accelerated the death. Most of the covid deaths are from elderly people, i.e above age 70, who are suffering from other medical problems. 

The covid accelerated the deaths, but the loss of life is probably just a few years. 

It is possible that covid cause "excess deaths", i.e. from people who are otherwise healthy. This number is small.

Like most people, I will say that we should do all that is possible to reduce the covid deaths. However, we should also accept that there is only that much that can be done. The rest is beyond our control.

I want to put this matter into perspective, so that when the deaths occur, and they are within the normal expectation, people will not panic and over react. 

We should not impose restrictions that can be harmful to people's livelihoods. This harm can lead to deaths from depression and suicide.

We should make sensible decisions that balance the interest of all parties. We should recognize that many people have to work to earn a livelihood to feed a family and pay their mortgages and other financial commitments. 

If the number of covid deaths remain within the normal expectation, which in my opinion is 1 or 2 a day, we should not impose restrictions that damage peoples' livelihoods or cause other health risks. 

Tan Kin Lian
 


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