Covid-19 crisis The Tan Tock Seng Hospital cluster
Channel New Asia gave a detailed report about the covid cluster at Tan Tan Seng Hospital (TTSH).

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/timeline-tan-tock-seng-hospital-covid-19-cluster-moh-14741614

A total of 40 cases were linked to this cluster - 23 patients, 9 staff and 8 visitors.

The infection probably started with the admission of the 57 year old man (case 62561) on 18 April 2021. 

A nurse (case 62571) was symptomatic and test positive on 27 April. She had been vaccinated and was still infected.

All of the cases were connected with wards 7D and 9D. There were patients in these wards, or were people working or visiting these wards.

Here are my observations.

a) Most of these cases were detected due to proactive testing of all patients, staff and visitors to these wards.

b) Three cases were symptomatic - the initial patient, the nurse and the doctor. 

c) The infected staff and visitors do not appear to transmit the virus to their family members. Is this an indication that secondary infection of asymptomatic cases was low?

d) Several patients in TTSH had to be given oxygen therapy. Most of them were elderly and were admitted into the hospital due to other health conditions. The covid infection is harmful to them.

Although this is a large cluster, I am personally not alarmed at this happening. It appears to me that the virus can be spread by a super spreader, but most of the infected people are not harmed (except if they have an existing serious health condition) and do not pass the infection to other people.

I believe that the virus is present in the community, but is at a mild level and do not harm most healthy people (although a small number might be more severely infected).

I do not think that the situation is dire and requires a serious response, such as a higher level of restriction (i.e. a return to phase 2 of the circuit breaker).

I may be wrong.

Tan Kin Lian






 

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