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08 Apr 2021
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China
Will the digital yuan replace the US dollar in international trade?
China will soon be using the digital CNY in international trade. Here is an article that discusses the scope of this digital currency.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-chinas-new-digital-yuan-threaten-king-dollars-reign-11617743063?siteid=yhoof2
I make the following comments to the points in this article.
a) The article said that China needs to liberalize its financial system further for the CNY to be a reserve currency.
Rebuttal - Many countries may be willing to accept the CNY as a reserve currency. If they do not, they can convert the CNY to another other currency that they wish to.
b) Many of the existing transactions are already digital.
Rebuttal - I agree. But they are using the USD which is subject to control by America. By using the CNY, they avoid this control. The countries that trade with China will have no issue that China has access to the data.
The digital CNY has low transaction cost, compared to the existing system using SWIFT and USD.
My view is that the further use of the CNY in international trade will diminish the role of USD in international trade and as a reserve currency. This will occur over a few years, but the impact will be significantly negative for the USD.
Tan Kin Lian
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