Covid-19 crisis How serious is the covid infection?
Most people are worried about covid infection. They think that, if the virus is not controlled strictly, the infection could spread to many people and lead to a disaster. They look at the massive infection in Europe and America and are afraid that the same disaster could occur in other countries, if not properly controlled.

I take a different view about the risk. 

I think that the risk is higher in the temperate climate, but is relatively low in the hot, humid climate. I am not saying that there is no risk here. I only want to point out the difference between a serious risk and a small risk.

The most important statistics is the death rate per million of population caused by covid-19.

In many countries in Europe and America, the death rate is more than 500 per million. This is high.

In some countries in Asia, the death rate is between 50 to 100 per million. This is 5 to 10 times lower than in Europe. It is still high and some measures should be adopted to stop the spread. But the disaster is not of the same magnitude.

In some countries, the death rate is less than 20 per million. Singapore is 5 per million. This is low. It does not warrant the same measure that are taken in high risk countries. 

With a low risk, we should not take extreme measures that will cause the economy to collapse, businesses to close and many people to lose their jobs.

The question is - if Singapore relaxes our control measures, will the infection increase exponentially?

My answer is - we can relax our measures and monitor the situation. If the risk gets very bad and many people have to be hospitalized, we can increase the control measures. 

I suspect that the virus is mild in the hot and warm climate in Singapore and the high standard of health care. We can now relax our control measures. We should. 

Do you agree?

Tan Kin Lian
         

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