Covid-19 crisis Risk management - close the border
In risk management, we have to consider the cost of risk of the various options.

For example, we can close the borders to stop infected people from coming into Singapore and spreading the virus. 

However, this option will harm the tourism trade and the livelihoods of many people and businesses in the trade. It will also cause damage to the rest of the economy.

A risk management approach tries to quantify the cost of risk of the various options.

I set out below, an example of the risk management calculation. The figures that I used are based on my estimate and judgement. More importantly, I have used them to demonstrate the process. Do not rely too much on these figures.

It is possible for other people to use other figures and get a different result.

My figures are better than the judgment made by many people - who think only of one side of the issue. They are worried about the spread of the virus and the possible health risk. But they do not try to quantify the cost of this risk.

They also totally ignore the cost of the harm to the economy from the border closure. 

Tan Kin Lian

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