Covid-19 crisis Vaccine from Russia
The president of Russia announced that they have found a vaccine and have approved its use in the country. They have started large scale production.

The western media criticized the decision. There were no data about the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine. The scientists said that it normally takes 18 months for a vaccine to be proven.

I hold a different view on this matter. I believe that President Putin is making the right decision as a leader. Let me explain my view. 

President Putin decided to authorize the use now, instead of waiting another 6 months. I agree with this decision, because there is need to find a vaccine. 

What about the risk?

Here are some possible outcomes, with my guess of its probability:

a) The vaccine will kill - 0.1%
b) The vaccine will cause harmful effect - 2%
c) The vaccine will have minor benefit - 20%
d) The vaccine will be effective and safe - 10%
e) A better vaccine will be found in 6 or 12 months time - 68%

I am confident about the first two outcome. I am sure that the Russian scientists and the President would not approve the vaccine if the numbers are much higher. 

Even if they are wrong and the vaccine is lethal or harmful, it will be discovered quite soon, before too many people were vaccinated.

The benefit of the third and fourth outcomes will outweigh the risk of the first two outcomes.

Due to the critical situation facing the world now, it is best to act on a vaccine that has not been fully proven - provided that the risk of death or harm is low. The Russian vaccine probably falls in this category.

It is difficult for the scientist to take a decision to use a vaccine that is now at the first or second stage of test. It has to be taken by a political leader. President Putin has taken that decision. I hope that he is proven to be correct.

Tan Kin Lian

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