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12 May 2020  (544 Views) 
Covid-19 crisis

Immunity from the corona virus
Many people are worried that immunity from the corona virus will not last long. They will be reinfected by a mutation of the virus. 

That is true. 

According to the disease experts, this has been happening over the past decades. The virus mutates and comes back in a new form. The vaccine or antibody that was developed during the earlier outbreak may not be effective.

However, some experts have also explained that the mutated virus could be more contagious (i.e. spread to more people) but is usually less lethal. There is no reason to believe that the covid-19 virus will behave differently.

It is likely that there will be future waves of the covid-19 virus, but the disease will be less serious, compared to the first wave. One possible reason is that most people have already been infected and has gained some immunity. While it is not total immunity, it will have some protection.

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, there is no need to panic or be alarmed.

To be safe, it is advisable to continue the social distancing measures and to wear a mask, but there is no need to impose a lockdown or a circuit breaker.

However, if the disease is more serious than expected, more drastic measures can be implemented at a future date. There is no need to take these costly measures, unless there is evidence of a worsening trend.

In risk management, we have to weigh the severity and frequency of each possible outcome and decide on the best option. It is not advisable to take the extreme option (e.g. to avoid all infections and deaths) as it could be the most costly and least efficient.

Tan Kin Lian

Vote - we need to apply risk management.


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