Covid-19 crisis Perhaps 7% of people in Singapore already got the virus
New York state carried out a random test and found 13.9% of the population already infected. The rate is 21.2% in New York City. See report.

If a random test is carried out in Singapore, I expect to see a rate of 7% (one third of New York City). This means that 400,000 people in Singapore would have already been infected.

I estimate a lower rate in Singapore, compared to New York City, because of our warm climate. The WHO statistics showed that 12% of the people who have been tested are found to be positive. The testing was carried out mainly with the foreign workers and the people who have been in contact or with symptoms.

The government now reports very low new cases in the community. This is likely to be grossly understated. We are seeing a very low number because so few people are being tested.

Even though more people are likely to have been infected in Singapore, we do not need to panic. The death rate from the virus is quite low in Singapore. Very few people need ICU treatment.

We only need to worry when these numbers spite up many fold. So far, they have remain stable.

It is important for Singapore to carry out a random test now. The actual data will guide the policy makers to make better decisions on how to deal with the virus. 

Tan Kin Lian


 

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