Covid-19 crisis Worrying about the unknown
Many people are worried about the covid-19 virus. They worry about the mutation of the virus. They worry about how long the virus can spread with people that have or do not have symptoms. They worry about the reinfection of the people who have been cured. 

In their worry, they support the circuit breaker measures and consider that the heavy price to pay is worth it "to be safe". Most of them are salaried workers who still keep their jobs. 

They should look beyond their comfort zone to see the hundreds of thousand of livelihoods that are damaged by the circuit breaker measures - small businesses, hawkers, taxi and private hire drivers and the people who lost their jobs.

I ask them to look beyond the unknowns and focus on what is known and staring us in the eye.

The death rate from the covid-19 virus is 2 per million in Singapore. This is extremely low compared to 120 in America and 200 to 400 in some countries in Europe. 

The number of patients being treated in ICU in Singapore is less than 30. It has been at this level for the past weeks. 

Countries that are badly hit needed thousands and tens of thousand ventilators. Wuhan had to build 2 new hospitals with more than 2,500 beds in two weeks. 

These are the known facts. They are reported daily in the MOH website and WHO website. In our concern about what might happen, we should look at the data that is already available. 

For some reason, the covid-19 virus is mild in Singapore. It is also mild in some other countries, such as Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia. I suspect that it is due to the warm climate. 

Australia and New Zealand just passed through summer. I expect their death rate to increase when they approach winter, unless their containment measures work well.

I know that the deaths and ICU cases can increase in Singapore. But we do not need to panic about this unknown. We can watch the figures and see the trend. Any sharp increase will not occur overnight. It will take weeks and months to manifest. 

We should not sit on our hands and do nothing. We can take the following contingency measures:

a) Set up a temporary hospital and increase the beds, ventilators and hospital workers.
b) Increase the capacity for the isolation facilities
c) Arrange for special screened caregivers to take care of the elderly and sick living in old folks home and living alone.

These measures are more effective than locking down the whole country to stop the spread of the virus, when the virus may be not lethal and could be stopped in less costly ways.

In making our decision, we should look at the available data and now be distracted with the unknowns. We should not panic and adopt costly measures that may not be necessary and may not be effective. We can look at the data and adjust the strategy as the known facts change.

If we have death rates at the levels of America or Europe, we should take strong measures, including locking down the economy. But when the death rate is low, we should not over-react and take the extreme measures.

Tan Kin Lian



 

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