Covid-19 crisis 728 new cases on 16 April 2020

Wow! 728 new cases for April 16. It does not suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly. It is the result of comprehensive testing of the workers in the dormitories. The virus has already spread earlier and is now discovered by the testing.

In America, 20% of those tested are found to be positive for the virus.

In Singapore, the infected cases represent 6% of those tested (4427 out of 72680, according to WHO statistics).

If we carry out comprehensive testing of the general population, I expect to find that 6% would also have been infected, but many of these cases were not identified because the infections were mild.

Will MOH release the statistics of how many people were tested for the virus, how many were found positive and how many had symptoms? This information is important to understand what is really happening.

The absence of this information will will cause panic among the general population and lead to stronger reaction, such as more drastic lockdown measures. Is it really necessary?

So far, the death rate for the coronavirus is 2 per million of population. It is extremely low in Singapore, compared to 86 in America and over 100 in some European countries.

In contrast, the death rate in Singapore from all causes is 3,500 per million. We should not over-react when 2 die from coronavirus. There are another 3,498 people who die from other causes.

Of course, people are scared that the virus can spread more widely in the general population. They imagine that it could increase by 100 or 1,000 folds. That fear is exaggerated and unfounded.

Even if there are more people in the general population that gets infected, most of the cases are likely to be mild. 

We only need to worry if there are more people that need to be placed in intensive care and the death rate increase to 20 per million, i.e. 10 times of the current rate. 

I am not suggesting that we do nothing until it reaches 20. We do what is necessary if the number does increase rapidly from the current 2 per million, but we should not plan on the basis that it will become 20 or 200. Not yet.

I still call on the people, and more especially, the ministerial task force, to look at the figures in the perspective that I have suggested, and to take rational decisions on what needs to be done.

Tan Kin Lian

Vote - do you agree with my approach, i.e. that we monitor and see what further measures are necessary from now, instead of planning on the worse case scenario "to be safe"?
 

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