Covid-19 crisis Carry out a sample test of the general population
The increase in infected cases under covid-19 is alarming in recent days. We are seeing the new cases numbering several hundreds each day, compared to an average of 50 cases previously.

The figures may seem alarming, and may suggest that the virus is spreading rapidly.

However, there is another angle that may be overlooked. 

The increase in cases are largely in the worker dormitories. It is the result of the increased number of testing under the contact tracing protocol. 

When an infected person is found, the protocol require all their contacts to be traced and tested. Where the worker live in a dormitory, all the workers living in the same floor or block of the dormitory are tested. During this period, there must be a significant increase in the testings that are carried out.

It is likely that the number of positive tests is related to the number of tests that are carried out. Many of the people test positive were already infected earlier, but the symptoms did not appear. These cases are identified only  when they are tested. 

If this is the case, the increase in cases is related to the number of tests that are carried out. It may suggest that the infection had already spread earlier and are now being caught by the testing.

This is also the case in America. It has a large number of cases soon after they carry out large scale testing.

The increase in case may not suggest that the virus is spreading widely now, but rather that they are being identified due to the increased testing.

It may be possible that the virus had already spread widely in the general population and has done most of the damage already. If this the case, I do not expect conditions to worsen considerably from now.

The best way to test this possibility is to carry out a sample test covering 5,000 people selected in the general population to see the extent that they have been exposed.

Tan Kin Lian

Vote - should we carry out a sample test of the population?
 

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