Covid-19 crisis Why was there a sharp increase in infection since 24 March?
Why was there a sharp increase in infection since 24 March?

I asked my 100 year old crystal ball - where was there a sharp increase in the number of infections during the past two weeks, since 24 March?

Could it be due to the large number of students who returned home from the UK and the US? Among them, a large number are reported as "imported cases". Could these people be responsible for the increase in infections?

My crystal ball said - but these people were placed under quarantine in the luxury hotels. How could they have spread the virus, when they were under quarantine?

Why then is there a sharp increase?

The ball said - Can you ask the ministerial task force. Were there enhanced contact tracing during the last two weeks? Did they increase the number of tests during this period?

I replied - I don't know. The task force does not release this figure. I do not know how they detected the new cases. Did these people fall sick and went to see the doctor? Or were they tested to be positive during the contact tracing?

The ball replied - You have to get the figures on the number of tests carried out each day. It may be possible that 10% or 20% of the people are already infected. So, if you carry out more tests, you will surely get more people with positive results. However, if the number of tests remain the same, then it shows that the virus has spread more rapidly in recent days.

I wonder if I can rely on this crystal ball. It told me that the global stock market would recover on 9 April. So far, this does not seem to be happening. 

Do you think the crystal ball make sense?

Tan Kin Lian
 

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