Covid-19 crisis What proportion of the population is already infected?
The government has decided to implement a lockdown in Singapore. All non-essential workplaces have to close for one month.

I guess that they have no choice. The new local infections has increased to an alarming number (about 50 cases a day). There is widespread panic among the people.

There is a belief that a lockdown will stop the spread of the corona virus. Many countries or cities are already adopting this approach. It seemed to be safer and wiser to follow them. 

We should take advantage of the lockdown period to gather a vital piece of information - what proportion of the population is already infected with the virus?

We do not need to test the entire population. It should be possible to select sample of 5,000 people that is representative of the population by age group, health status and social economic status.

There is a general assumption that most people are not yet infected, and if containment measures are not taken now, the number of infected people could increase ten or hundred folds.

This assumption may be wrong. It may be possible that 25% or 50% of the population are already infected and have developed the immunity to the virus.

If indeed more than 25% of the population is already infected with the virus (and a large proportion is now immune to it), there is no need to impose a lockdown or to extend it. 

This vital piece of information is necessary to do a reliable projection of the number of people that will be sick and need medical care. 

During this time, we can also prepare for an increase in the hospital beds that are needed to treat the increasing number of patients. 

In the UK, they have already converted a stadium that adds 500 beds. This facility could be expanded eventually to 5,000 beds. They are also recruiting and training the medical staffs to manage this facility, including recalling the retired health professionals. This will stop the health care system from being overwhelmed.

We should make similar preparations during the period of the lockdown.

I am still optimistic that the corona virus will not result in the large increase in deaths globally that some projections showed, i.e. figures of 10 million or more. I believe that the eventual number will be much less than 1 million. It will still be a large number.

I am more worried that the extreme measures that are being taken around the world will have a economic impact that will outweigh the actual harm caused by the corona virus. This economic damage could be reduced by making the right decision on dealing with the corona virus.

Tan Kin Lian







 

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